James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 23, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
When talking about air yards, James Cook ranks in the towering 86th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a colossal 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
James Cook slots into the 79th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 14.6 mark this year.
The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's unit has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Patriots defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.