James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 9, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects James Cook to accumulate 3.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
When talking about air yards, James Cook ranks in the towering 81st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a striking 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
James Cook's 16.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 81st percentile for RBs.
When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
The model projects the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.8 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 54.2 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.