James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
James Cook's 49.9% Route Participation Rate this season shows a noteable boost in his air attack usage over last season's 19.1% figure.
James Cook has notched a whopping 6.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
James Cook has posted quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (75.8%) vs. running backs this year (75.8%).
The Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

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