James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
James Cook has run more routes this year (49.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (19.1%).
The predictive model expects James Cook to accumulate 3.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
James Cook has accumulated a monstrous 5.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (This might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
This year, the daunting Patriots pass defense has allowed the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing running backs: a paltry 6.1 YAC.

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