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James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +100.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.In this game, James Cook is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets.In regards to air yards, James Cook grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a massive 6.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).James Cook's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 10.4.The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are a massive favorite by 15.5 points.The projections expect the Bills to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Giants, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.This year, the fierce New York Giants defense has surrendered a feeble 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the best in football.Since the start of last season, the formidable New York Giants defense has surrendered a puny 74.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
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