James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects James Cook to garner 3.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
James Cook has posted a colossal 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
James Cook's 11.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for RBs.
James Cook's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 63.5% to 77.7%.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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