James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This week, James Cook is expected by the projection model to rank in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets.
James Cook has notched a whopping 6.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among running backs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
James Cook's 16.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 10.4.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) to running backs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77%) versus RBs this year (77.0%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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