James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
James Cook has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (49.5% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (19.1%).
When talking about air yards, James Cook ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a monstrous 5.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
James Cook has accumulated many more adjusted receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

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