James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-144/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects James Cook to garner 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
James Cook has posted a colossal 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The New York Jets pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.60 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
James Cook has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a mere 63.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 3rd percentile.

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