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James Cook

James Cook Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+103/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

James Cook has accrued a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.

James Cook has run a route on 17.7% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking in the 25th percentile among running backs.

The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

James Cook has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing a mere 62.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 3rd percentile.

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