James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
James Cook has compiled a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in football (45.0) vs. running backs this year.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
James Cook has run a route on 14.7% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among running backs.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
James Cook has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among running backs, catching a mere 61.9% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 3rd percentile.

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