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James Cook

James Cook Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

James Cook has notched a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

James Cook has run a route on 11.4% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 18th percentile among running backs.

James Cook has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among RBs, catching just 45.0% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 5th percentile.

James Cook has been among the weakest running backs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.

The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.4%) to RBs this year (75.4%).

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