James Cook Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects James Cook to accumulate 12.6 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
James Cook has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this year (51.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (19.1%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 3rd-least run-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 32.4% run rate.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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