James Cook Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
After accounting for 19.1% of his team's rush attempts last year, James Cook has been called on more in the run game this year, now taking on 51.0%.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the worst in the NFL last year.

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