James Cook Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects James Cook to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (31.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.8% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

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