James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 43.9% run rate.
The leading projections forecast James Conner to accumulate 16.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
James Conner has earned 58.5% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
James Conner's 77.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a a meaningful growth in his rushing prowess over last year's 61.0 mark.

Favors Under

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football last year in run blocking.

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