James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-139/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

James Conner's 62.0% snap rate this season indicates a remarkable decline in his offensive workload over last season's 79.5% rate.
The predictive model expects James Conner to accrue 12.2 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
James Conner has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (71.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).
James Conner's rushing efficiency (4.97 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (88th percentile when it comes to RBs).
James Conner rates as one of the leading RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.64 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a big -11.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cardinals to run on 37.5% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the Cardinals to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league last year in run-blocking.

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