James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to run on 43.6% of their chances: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per play.
James Conner has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 60.1% of snaps vs 79.5% last season.
The predictive model expects James Conner to accrue 14.1 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 9th-best group of LBs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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