James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-110/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 64.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (41.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Arizona Cardinals.
James Conner has been a less important option in his team's offense this season, playing on just 62.9% of snaps vs 79.5% last season.
The projections expect James Conner to total 15.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.
James Conner has picked up 69.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (96th percentile).

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The Arizona O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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