James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 70.2 plays per game.
James Conner has been given 47.8% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
James Conner has run for many fewer yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (53.0).
James Conner's ground effectiveness (3.47 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (19th percentile among running backs).

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