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James Conner

James Conner Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+145/-175).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cardinals have been the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 47.5% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.2 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects James Conner to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (67.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.2% in games he has played).

James Conner has rushed for 0.44 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (86th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Opposing offenses have run for the least touchdowns in football (0.42 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

The New England Patriots safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a mere 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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