James Conner Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 9th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 45.5% red zone run rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to be a more important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (71.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.9% in games he has played).
James Conner has run for 0.43 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among running backs (82nd percentile).
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Arizona Cardinals have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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