James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.33 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
James Conner has run a route on 48.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 53.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.
James Conner's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 86.0% to 80.7%.
The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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