James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 11, 2024 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced ground volume.
With a sizeable 47.2% Route Participation Rate (77th percentile) this year, James Conner has been among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast James Conner to accumulate 3.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
When it comes to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Cardinals grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 55.2% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.37 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
James Conner's 82.5% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 86.0% rate.
The Jets linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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