James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
James Conner's 89.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a a substantial progression in his receiving talent over last season's 81.4% rate.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the worst in football.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.1% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Cincinnati Bengals, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
James Conner has been used less as a potential target this year (46.8% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (61.5%).

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