James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 14.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
James Conner has run a route on 59.8% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Cardinals will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.4% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions this week.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, San Francisco's group of safeties has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-best in football.