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James Conner

James Conner Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are big -12.5-point underdogs.

The Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in football (40.8 per game) this year.

In this game, James Conner is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cardinals.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are expected by the projections to run only 63.6 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.

James Conner's 41.0% Route Participation% this year conveys a significant drop-off in his passing game usage over last year's 61.5% figure.

The Arizona offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

James Conner's receiving talent has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to 3.5 last season.

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