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James Conner

James Conner Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -4.5-point underdogs.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football.

The Bears pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (84.4%) to RBs this year (84.4%).

The Bears safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the projections to run only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.

James Conner has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (40.8% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (61.5%).

When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Cardinals ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year.

James Conner's 1.7 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a noteable decline in his receiving talent over last season's 3.5 mark.

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