James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+145).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per play.
Favors Under
The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Cardinals as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
James Conner has been used less as a potential target this year (41.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (61.5%).
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
James Conner's receiving performance has declined this year, notching just 1.7 adjusted catches compared to 3.5 last year.