James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:16 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this game, James Conner is projected by the projections to finish in the 78th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets.
James Conner's 89.6% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial gain in his receiving talent over last season's 81.4% figure.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cardinals to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
James Conner's 40.9% Route Participation Rate this year signifies a noteworthy decrease in his air attack workload over last year's 61.5% rate.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
James Conner's receiving talent has diminished this year, notching just 1.3 adjusted receptions compared to 3.5 last year.

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