James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
James Conner's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 81.4% to 89.6%.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.4% pass rate.
James Conner has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (40.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (61.5%).
When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cardinals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
James Conner's play as a receiver has diminished this season, accumulating just 1.6 adjusted catches compared to 3.5 last season.

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