James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback TEXT1 this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
James Conner has run more routes this season (53.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (38.9%).

Favors Under

James Conner's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 81.8%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (78.5%) versus RBs this year (78.5%).
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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