James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to total 3.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
James Conner's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 94.7% to 86.0%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (70.7%) to RBs this year (70.7%).
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

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