James Conner Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
James Conner's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 81.4% to 89.6%.
James Conner's 10.25 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a meaningful boost in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 8.4% figure.
This year, the shaky Falcons defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a staggering 6.86 yards.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.4% pass rate.
James Conner has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (40.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (61.5%).
James Conner has notched a mere -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile among running backs.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cardinals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.

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