James Conner Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Trace McSorley in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

James Conner has put up a mere -8.0 air yards per game this year: just 3rd percentile among RBs.
James Conner's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 79.6%.
James Conner's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, totaling just 4.95 yards-per-target compared to a 8.98 rate last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 23.0) to RBs this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus running backs this year, allowing 4.72 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

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