James Conner Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to total 3.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
James Conner has put up a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 13th percentile among RBs.
James Conner's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 94.7% to 86.0%.
James Conner's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging just 5.36 yards-per-target vs a 9.38 rate last season.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 25.0) to running backs this year.

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