James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
At the moment, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the league (42.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Arizona Cardinals.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
James Conner has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this season, playing on just 61.3% of snaps vs 79.5% last season.
In this week's game, James Conner is expected by the model to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.0 rush attempts.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's collection of DTs has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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