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James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-125).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).At the moment, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the league (42.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Arizona Cardinals.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.James Conner has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this season, playing on just 61.3% of snaps vs 79.5% last season.In this week's game, James Conner is expected by the model to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.0 rush attempts.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year in run-blocking.When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's collection of DTs has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.
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