James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 43.0% run rate.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to notch 14.1 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 8th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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