James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to garner 15.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
James Conner has been a more integral piece of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 64.7% of snaps vs just 53.9% last year.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The New England Patriots safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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