James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to notch 16.5 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (72.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.0% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.