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Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-205).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +215 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +155.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jameis Winston this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.The Browns are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.The leading projections forecast the Browns as the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league in the red zone (58.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cleveland Browns.Right now, the 7th-quickest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cleveland Browns.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.Jameis Winston profiles as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with a 51.6% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 10th percentile.With an awful ratio of just 0.25 per game (6th percentile), Jameis Winston ranks as one of the worst TD passers in the league this year.As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.
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