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Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-240/+178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -192 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Browns, who are -3.5-point underdogs.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 58.6% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The model projects the Browns to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.7% red zone pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 137.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.

The most plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a colossal 62.6 per game on average).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.

This year, the daunting Steelers defense has allowed a mere 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 5th-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 0.90 per game this year.

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