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Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Jameis Winston TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+133/-177).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -177.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (61.6% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Browns.

The predictive model expects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 62.1 plays per game.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Saints defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has given up a paltry 0.80 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.

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