Jameis Winston Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jameis Winston Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (9.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).
Jameis Winston has generated 21.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in football among QBs (78th percentile).
Jameis Winston's ground effectiveness (6.42 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (83rd percentile among quarterbacks).
Jameis Winston has been among the best quarterbacks in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.68 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to total 2.4 carries in this week's game, on average: the least of all QBs.
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.