Jameis Winston Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Jameis Winston Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+115/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to garner 5.2 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (17.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.9% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.