Jameis Winston Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jameis Winston

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Jameis Winston Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+420/-931).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -740 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -931.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jameis Winston to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (12.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.2% in games he has played).
Jameis Winston has run for 0.14 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among quarterbacks (75th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in football (1.12 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Saints rank as the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 38.7% red zone run rate.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.