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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 66.8% pass rate.

The model projects the Bengals to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 95.9% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile among wideouts with 9.6 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.

Ja'Marr Chase's receiving skills have declined this year, accumulating a mere 6.4 adjusted receptions compared to 7.4 last year.

The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (54.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (54.2%).

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