Ja'Marr Chase Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Ja'Marr Chase

NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
The model projects Ja'Marr Chase to accrue 10.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Ja'Marr Chase's 76.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 65.8.
With an excellent 7.8 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase has been as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the league.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston's collection of CBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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