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Ja'Marr Chase

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

Ja'Marr Chase Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.

Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 98.8% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

THE BLITZ projects Ja'Marr Chase to garner 9.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

Ja'Marr Chase's pass-catching performance improved this year, totaling 7.3 yards per game compared to just 5.0 last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (62%) vs. wideouts this year (62.0%).

The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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