Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 84.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
The model projects Ja'Marr Chase to accumulate 12.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
Ja'Marr Chase has been a more important option in his team's passing attack this season (33.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.1%).
When it comes to air yards, Ja'Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 89th percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a striking 96.0 per game.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.
Ja'Marr Chase's 5.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a substantial reduction in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 6.6% figure.
The Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.